The context of the IPCC and Garonne 2050
Created by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has been evaluating scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge related to climate change since the 1980s, with the aim of slowing down global warming, preventing and limiting its impacts and being able to adapt to changes. The IPCC brings together scientists of various nationalities and disciplines who are organised in working groups around three issues: scientific aspects of climate change, impact and vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems, and possible solutions. There is also a task force for national greenhouse gas emissions inventories, which is developing and improving a methodological guide for monitoring GHG emissions.
Since its creation, the IPCC has published 6 reports, the latest in 2022, in which it warns of the impacts of climate change and sresses the need to develop a policy of resilience and the urgent implementation of actions to reduce GHG emissions.
In the 5th IPCC report, four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios model the future climate according to the evolution of GHG emissions. The Digital Twins project is based on the RCP4.5 scenario, which predicts a stabilisation of emissions before the end of the 21st century at a low level.
Garonne 2050 aims to measure and predict the impact that global warming could have on the natural low water flows of the Garonne basin by 2050 and consequently what the consequences will be for the territory. Three scenarios have been imagined in order to shed light on the actions to be implemented according to the possible future:
- Let nature take its course and accept much lower flows
- Preserve the nature of today: compensate for the effect of climate change
- Limiting vulnerabilities